Bimodal Distributions in voting patterns

It is interesting to see bimodal distributions in real life where the cause of such a distribution can be guessed at a priori. One place where I stumbled on this recently is in the imdb user ratings of films.

For instance, the ratings distribution for a typical film shows a typical bell distribution: see Courage Under Fire for instance. But take new recent polarized offerings: An American Carol and Religulous. These show a clear bimodal distribution where the modes are at the extremes. Then I started looking for a film where the polarization is not as extreme as in the above two.

It appears trimodal distributions are more common than bimodals: Lady in the Water, The Chronicles of Narnia, Titanic, Borat. Could not predict a film which has a clean, non-extreme bimodal distribution.  The closest I could get to was Blue Velvet. What does this (anecdotal, non-exhaustive) experiment signify? That we are prone to go overboard; we are more likely to vote when we belong to the fringes. Scary?

The Watson Debate

Ms. Sujatha Byravan trots out an overused set of old chestnuts in the article, “Would Watson be different if he were black?” (The Hindu, Oct 30th). These were quite typical of the articles that sprouted all over the world in the wake of Watson’s indecorous comments implying that intelligence has a racial component.Here are some logical and scientific fallacies that I was able to spot in this specific article. Did you do any better?“Eugenics in Germany, Lewis Terman and the ‘Brahmin’”

The “Ad Hominem” attack, the first, possibly the oldest, definitely the most oft-used. “This view look similar to the ones held by Hitler. So, Sir, you are nothing but a Nazi.”

“Race is a sociological division, not biological one”

The “weak form of the antecedent implies stronger form of the consequent” fallacy. The conditional is “If there are no discernible markers at all which could be proven to be crucial to racial identity, then race is a sociological division, not a biological one.” This conditional is true, a weaker form of the antecedent is also true. (There is no single, clearly demarcated marker which can identify the race of a person.) But the unchanged form of the consequent is gleefully asserted.

The support for the above proposition comes off the assertion that there is no single, clearly demarcated visible marker which can identify the race of a person. This is true, but there is a set of genetic markers which, with their phenotypes, makes identifying the race of most people a cinch. Tightly curled hair, eye angle, skin colour and eye/hair colour are all features which overlap between racial groups. None of these, in itself, is a racial marker. But between them (and more like them), there is a classification which we do with very high probability every day and which can also be done using mathematical tools in an automated manner.

“Can’t measure, don’t compare”

It is undeniable that people have different levels of intelligence. It has been also shown again and again that there is a strong correlation between racial groups and IQ scores. This is true for both regional IQ assessment tests, as well as tests in the same region between different groups, for instance, between Blacks and Whites in USA. So, in the face of such evidence, what is the logical way out? Question the assessment method itself!

There are two fronts on which IQ tests are attacked: that IQ tests are biased towards certain races, or that IQ tests are biased towards certain cultures. Both are unfalsifiable and tautological, given the actual results. In all IQ tests, certain groups do better than others, so the test must have been biased against the latter!

Here is a falsifiable set of experiments to prove or disprove the validity of IQ tests. Take a homogenous population, and measure the success of a person, for some definition of success. For instance, this could be the income or wealth, if you believe that a person’s ability is reflected in his/her earning capacity in that society, or it could be some peer review ratings of job ability that happens in large organizations. Also measure the IQ score of that person as per some standard psychometric test. Now calculate the correlation between the ability of the person as measured by the success score and his/her IQ score. A high correlation should put to rest the question of ‘validity’ of IQ tests.

The second test is to measure the IQ scores of different racial groups, from the same environment, for example, the same region, the same median income families and the same level of education of the parents. A strong correlation here should establish the link between racial groups and IQ scores.

Actually, both these types have been done, and the results are there for all to see: There is a strong correlation between the standard IQ tests and a person’s ability and there is a strong correlation between a person’s racial group and their IQ score. Fire up your browser and search the web using your favourite search engine for a set of scientific articles like the one here http://www.gnxp.com/blog/2007/10/james-watson-tells-inconvenient-truth_296.php

Another point that could be made is that the measures of success that were proposed above are essentially “Western” concepts and so there is no surprise when there is a strong correlation between those and another “Western” concept like IQ tests. My response is to ask the people to come up with measures which are “Indian” or “African” which would involve the same root objectives: quality of life, health, education, law etc, and prove that this measure is unrelated to IQ.“Nature vs nurture”That a person’s intelligence is the product of the inherited characteristics and the environment is generally accepted. But just because “nurture” plays an important role in the development of intelligence, would you ignore the contribution of “nature” to the same characteristic? The height of a person is a character which is impacted heavily both by genes and environment. Would one say that, because nutrition and physical habits play an important role in determining a person’s height, it is invalid to talk about the genetic contribution?

“Racial differences may be genetic but are superficial – ‘skin-deep’”

While the authors and others of the same ilk would not argue against differences in individuals due to their genetic makeup, their hackles would go up in a jiffy, if the same argument is applied to groups. Why would differences between populations which led to the selection of genes favouring different athletic abilities, hair colour, eye structure etc. stop short of making differences to more ‘sacrosanct’ features, such as intelligence or morality? That is, they would like to believe that the body and mind is a “Blank Slate” as far as certain taboo features are concerned, but it is not, for other more superficial differences. (As a comical aside, there is a measured correlation between brain size (a metric that you cannot endlessly argue about) and race. If the intelligence level is to be the same regardless of race, then does it not mean that the people with larger brain sizes are less ‘dense’?)

One chestnut surprisingly absent is the all-too-frequent assertion that there are more differences between individuals than between racial groups. This is taken to mean that differences between individuals are dominantly (85%) because they are different individuals, and only marginally (15%) because they belong to different racial groups. This conveniently glosses over the fact that 15% of genetic diversity will disappear if a race is removed from the distribution. In other words, there is a genetic marker, just that it is not a single gene.

For what it is worth, my own opinion is that it would be unfortunate if people are discriminated against based on their race or skin colour, in their education or their career. My own utopian dream would be a world where the racial differences are obliterated by interracial marriages, and regional differences are diluted by an increasingly permeable and hence irrelevant national boundaries. But it would not do to snuff out any discussion on crucial differences that exist today and hence the solutions that we need for the upliftment of different societies may be very different based on their innate advantages.

Watson would be different today if he were black. He would not have been hounded out of his job.

Pictures from the school

The scenes from our kids’ school (Chettinad Vidyashram at MRC Nagar) have to be seen to be believed, so let me add some pictures to illustrate the situation. Here is the scene *inside* the school in the morning. Through a narrow gate by which thousands of students pass every morning (CV has around 8000 students, I believe), cars are entering and exiting, blocking each other and the students. Note that only some ‘privileged’ cars are allowed inside the school to drop the children. The red scorpio, for instance, carries the flag of some political party.

Why, Oh Why, do we over-legislate and over-regulate?

For instance, cinema ticket pricing or CAS pay channel pricing.

We introduce inefficiencies, make corruption more rampant, hobble the businesses and create more red-tape.

DPA in trouble?

What greed can achieve, greed can definitely undo. The DPA, which is a ragtag collection of parties gathered together by the greed of the party supremos, seems to have been undone by the greed of the low-level functionaries.
The PMK seems pissed off that the DMK rebels bagged some of its allocated seats in the election for the heads of the local bodies. These lucrative posts were obviously to have been the price of the ‘unconditional’ support PMK provided to DMK in the state assembly.

The plan to set up a satellite township, which may have improved matters a bit here at Chennai, was derailed by PMK for some paltry monetary gain, so I am happy that they have been exposed (again!) for the nasty little buggers they are. The only (rather flimsy) hope is that J and K have the guts to ostracize this party and cut it down to size.

One god further

Dawkins taking a potshot at believers asking for proof of non-existence…

And, now for something a little different

http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Bill_Hicks

Eclipse of the moon

A craving for identity

 We seem to have some craving for an identity, either as individuals, or as a group. My mother tongue is as much an ‘incidental’ detail, as my date of birth is. But we elevate that to an essential part of what one is and who one is. Why is that?

An RTI initiative for schools

We, as a society, pride ourselves on the stress we place upon education.  It is clear that an overwhelming majority of us see education as the way for personal growth as well as social progress. Arising out of this, there is intense competition in getting our wards into the best schools available. This high demand has naturally given the managements of the better known schools sufficient leeway to demand anywhere in between Rs.10000 – Rs.50000 for admission even at the kindergarten level. But how do the facilities and the faculty in such schools measure up? Here are some of my first-hand observations of the school which my two children attend.

        The first shock is at the sheer size of the class. There are nearly 50 students in a class; hence the faculty-to-student ratio is nearly 50:1,  at least in these primary classes. Four or five kids are packed into a single bench, with literally no elbow room. At these numbers, is there any wonder if the teachers take an ‘assembly line’ approach to education, intent only upon finishing the syllabus and seeing the year through without     any disasters? Would they have any time for fostering individual development, for instilling a taste for learning in the young minds or for grooming a culture of discipline and social empathy?

    There are also up to 15 sections in a standard, amounting to nearly 8000 students in the school. Even the arguably fine facilities available in the school are stretched thin to handle such numbers, leaving little scope to take care of individual needs. Sporting, swimming and other facilities are only available under a strict rationing regimen and there is little hope that any student can develop even basic sports skills just from the school     facilities. The problems of logistics of this scale came to the fore recently when an event organized by the school, for just two classes, ran into time problems resulting in a delay of more than two hours compared to the schedule.    

    The transportation needs of these large numbers also cause a chaotic situation all around the school in the morning and in the evening. When I see all those blaring cars (mostly from driver-driven cars – the bane of Chennai traffic - but that’s a separate topic), the traffic snarls and the dozen daily skirmishes, I wonder what the students learn in practice. That the only way to get ahead is by being rude and mindless of others? All this, while the school management blithely goes ahead constructing more buildings in the campus and recruiting even more students.    

    The situation seems to be that whether you are willing to pay or not, you cannot     ensure caring, quality education today. It is the lack of easy access to information     which has brought about this situation. Schools with good track record and decent     enough facilities are unable to attract students who are willing to pay more, which     in turn would have helped them improve their faculty and facilities, while other schools with only a false aura of high standards are able to milk that reputation to the full, the herd mentality of anxious parents ensuring that the demand for these schools will not be adversely impacted by the overexploitation and the overcrowding.    

    What we need is a survey of schools by some independent authority, of unswerving     integrity. When parents see such an annual survey from a trusted source, they will be able to make informed decisions, and this will necessarily make all school managements accountable and responsible. Here are some parameters which can be objectively measured:

• Faculty-to-student ratio    
• Average number of students per class    
• Faculty information: Number of Masters/Graduates    
• Classroom sq.ft per student    
• Playground sq.ft per student    
• Placements in IITs/Anna Univ/top-grade Medical schools in the past three years    
• Extra-curricular achievements by the students in the past three years    
• Lockers/Swimming pool/Library/Laboratories and other facilities   

Primary and secondary education is the phase when the impressionable minds of the young can be directed towards the wonders of learning, for instance for the rigors of mathematics or the marvels of biology. It is essential that our society and our media give some mindspace to bettering the educational system at this level.